Good morning everyone and welcome back to the Bet Advisor daily webcast for the 4th and final day of the St Ledger meeting, as you can see I look a bit rough from celebrating getting some of the 40.0 on our winning selection yesterday Sirius Prospect …who landed a big punt for us all and put me back to the king of the tipsters where I belong, and if you read the blog I had narrowed it down to just three runners, if you had put them in a combination exacta which I always do in these big fields then you would have had a payout of £192 for a quid, as I keep saying…. because of the prices that I give out I have to expect losing runs but we can stand a losing run, recover any losses and make profit when the winner does come, I did say to you all yesterday that I thought today was going to be the day and too right I was, but saying that I have some humble pie to eat too, Regal Realm my banker of the day and the banker place lay Fallen for You both got overturned which cost me about 25% of my winnings from Sirius Prospect, no excuses I was wrong and will hold my hand up to it…… as I keep banging on about, don’t bet in fillies races and yesterday having those banker bets in the fillies race broke my golden rule, and I should know better….
Anyway onto todays racing, not much rain where I live near the course so got to expect the course to have dried out a bit with the wind we had yesterday, so I’m sure it will ride a bit quicker today and bring the horses with a bit of speed more into the equation, so the first race of the day the
2.05
Not a race to bet in, with it likely to turn into a fairly tactical race, I think the ground is the key here, the favourite Entifaadha has never run on ground so quick so you don’t know what to expect, so at around even money he would not be a horse I would be backing, if it turns into a tactical race then the two I would be interested in are Red Duke who has a nice turn of foot and Trumpet Major who’s best runs have come on this faster going and at around 3.8 to be placed in the first two I think that would be the bet for me to have
2.35
A nice wide open race with just the 22 runners to sift through so here we go I think that basically we need a hold up performer that will be shielded from the moderate headwind, another point to remember is that the race is over 5.5 furlongs and as it has done all week the last half a furlong changes the result, Waffle even with a visor on for the first time and Richard Hughes a good jockey booking he needs soft going to show his best so the ground has gone against him and he is poorly drawn, Zero Money did us a favour last week but is poorly drawn and will be trying to make the running into a head wind, and last week even though he has won over 6f previously he looked as if he was nearing the end of his stamina over the faster 5 furlongs so if he goes off as fast again the extra half a furlong and the rise in the weights might catch him out, he will also have trouble getting an easy lead with plenty of the other runners wanting to be up there too, not sure if Swiss Dream will have the speed to go with these the filly needs a bit of cut and 6 furlongs to be at her best, Confessional will be much better suited by this return to faster going but it will be a struggle to keep up the pace with so many competing for the lead early on closely drawn to her, I’m sure Richard Kingscote will be fuming that he has been jocked off Brown Panther and he would love to get a winner today but I don’t think Joe Packet will be good enough, I’ve narrowed it down to just four runners that I think can win today but to find out what they are you need to be a member
3.10
The St Ledger, Masked Marvel looks to have it all to do so far on what he has achieved and is not for me, even with Kieron Fallon taking over the ride on Brown Panther his level of form seems to have plateaued out and doubt that either Kieron or the faster going will bring about enough improvement for him to win this, apparently they left a bit to work on when Seville was beaten fav at York ( I wish they had told us before the race ) with an eye to bringing him here today but ten lengths is a lot of ground to make up on impressive winner Sea Moon, the long straight will suit Census who seems to run on and off the bit but once he gets going he motors, Blue Bunting can do no more than win but I think she has been well placed to win two “ weak “ group 1 races, the two races she has won have been moderately run races with no exceptional horses in them, today’s race is different in that the competition is much harder, there are at least three runners that are proper Group 1 horses, so I am going to have a place lay on Blue Bunting at around 1.7, and most of the winnings I won yesterday on Sirius Prospect will be going on Sea Moon who is a massive price today because of the going, most Alleged prodigy go on this type of ground which will be lovely and have no jar in it whatsoever, so he is a confident selection and another free one for you guys because the price is too short to give out to my members
3.45
Again a race where I think the going will make all the difference to the outcome, whenever Sarrsar has run on fast going like today he has run poorly so not for me, Eton Forever would win this if back to his Doncaster form but he has not run within ten pounds of that form either before or since so I can’t have him, Soorah is consistent but even with Kieron Fallon on board does not look good enough, Man of Action is another that even with the visor on like in his last two runs does not look good enough to win this, Mia’s Boy will like this faster going but he has not been in the best form lately, there are three in this race that I think could win the race but to find out what they are you need to be a member
4.15
Not a race I would get too involved with, there are some of these on the downgrade that might be suited by a tactical race like this is likely to become, Dafeef is moderate and been beaten in weaker races, Duff has come over from Ireland but I don’t know why because he looks out classed, the only thing of note I can see about him is that he has the visor back on in which he runs his best races but it is a leap of faith to expect him to bounce back to form just like that, Premier Loco needs everything to just drop right and Cheka is very beatable, so not a betting race for me,
4.50
A 1 mile nursery, Burano has never run on going this fast and does not look good enough, Pearl Charm was impressive on his first run on g/f going but seems to have gone backward since then, can’t have Anjaz at the prices, he has never run on turf, it was a weak Kempton maiden run in a slow time so not for me, Repeater won last time despite the track but it was a weak race and again not for me, Amazing Storm seems to have improved for running on slower ground so I think the going today might be against him, Pride and Joy has improved since being stepped up in trip and could find more now stepped up again, it is not a betting race for me but the three I would be looking at are Pride and Joy who we have talked about and looks a good bet for a place, Moon Trip who won well on the only time he has encountered fast ground and Captain Cardington who has a nice weight, and will appreciate the step up in trip and the faster going,
5.25
The final race of the meeting and another race not to bet in, the runners are very evenly matched, Dansili Dancer is better on the a.w, Picture Editor has a bit to find, Agent Archie is tried in a hood but not sure about the trip, Tepmokea is consistent but would need to produce a lifetime best to win this, the two down at the bottom Midnight Oil and Swift Alhaarth but could not be confident about either Midnight Oil might find the going just a little too fast and Swift Alhaarth is trained by Mark Johnston so a no bet race