Bet on: ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Stake: 3 % bankroll (60 units)
No Bet Under: 1.74
MLB GAME of the MONTH (Collmenter & Any Chicago Righty MUST START)
I’m making the biggest bet I ever make on a single game (3 Units) on ARIZONA. I read somewhere that Arizona is 9-0 in their last 9 Game 3’s in a series. Rest assured, I had this game rated as a 3-Unit wager before I came across that juicy tidbit. In fact, that trend was the LAST thing I read on this game.
Chicago evened this series last night with a 6-2 win. That didn’t really surprise me, as it was a lefty vs. lefty matchup of Danks vs. Duke. Chicago has been hitting well against lefties lately, while ‘Zona has been struggling against southpaws. But today we get a righty vs. righty matchup, and that changes everything.
Phillip Humber and Joshua Collmenter have both been pitching very well this season for their respective teams (NOTE: I’d make this play against any Chicago righty, but I’ll speak of Humber since he is listed at this time). Humber has been slightly better at home, while Collmenter has also been slightly better at home (despite pitching in a hitter’s park). Humber’s road numbers: 3.38 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, .265 OBP, .214 BA. Impressive indeed, but he was very hittable the last time he pitched in a hitter’s park against a potent offense (Boston). Now he finds himself in another hitter’s park against an Arizona lineup that also ranks among the league’s best. Arizona has also been ripping righties lately. Prior to last night’s results, Arizona had been batting .304 and scoring 6.75 runs per 9 innings against righties in their last 5 games.
While the D’backs have been hitting righties very well, Chicago has not. Prior to last night’s game, Chicago had been hitting .195 and scoring just 1.7 runs per 9 innings against righties. Now they have to face Collmenter, who has been “lights out” all season, especially at home. How good has he been at Chase Field? How about a 1.78 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and .159 BA! I also like that Collmenter is in a bounce-back spot, having allowed 5 runs, 8 hits, and 3 walks in just 5 innings in his last start. Can we really expect a Chicago lineup (that has been struggling against righties) to produce against a top-notch righty that they’ve never faced?
I also like that Arizona didn’t use their better relievers in last night’s loss. They used Owings and Heilman. Nothing lost there. ‘Zona’s pen has also been better recently. In their last 5 games prior to last night, Chicago’s pen owns a 6.23 ERA and 1.96 WHIP, as compared to a 3.52 ERA and 1.30 WHIP for the D’backs’ pen.
Bottom line: Chicago has been a losing proposition against righties this season and they’re REALLY struggling against them currently. Now they face a righty who has been dominant; a righty they’ve never faced. Arizona gets to face a righty who has been tough in his own right, but has shown to be hittable in a hitter’s park against a good offense. ‘Zona has been a huge money-maker against righties this season, and they’ve really been crushing righties as of late. The D’backs also have the better, hotter bullpen. This righty vs. righty matchup clearly favors Arizona, and I expect Collmenter to bounce back with another strong outing at home. I’m making a 3-Unit MAX BET on ARIZONA.
REMEMBER! This is ONLY ONE GAME! I’m betting it for THREE (3) UNITS. No more, no less. I recommend you do the same.