The Law of Large Numbers

Paul Bradbury a Tennis Tipster on TipsterAcademy. I have been tipping for quite a while on TipsterAcademy and during that time have had frequent conversations with Stuart about various gambling concepts. As I am both a subscriber to tipsters and a tipster in my own right with a reasonably impressive record I was asked to write an article on what people should look for in a good tipster. I thought long and hard about various subjects to cover ranging from the gamblers fallacy, to the concepts of variance and I finally decided the Law of Large numbers is the concept which every gambler should understand. The law of large numbers states that over time, the more you perform an action the more the actual result will regress to the mean, or the expected result. To explain the Law of Large Numbers I am going to turn to the roulette wheel, in my youth I spent 4.5 years working as a roulette dealer in a small casino and it taught me a lot. In a European wheel there are 37 numbers and the odds payable if you hit one are 35 to 1, this gives the house an advantage over the customer, the maths for this is below.

−1×36⁄37 + 35×1/37 = −0.0270 (2.70% house edge)