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How to beat the bookies?
In order to spot value, the professional tipster is looking for when a bookmaker has made a mistake with the odds they are offering. (For example, this might be putting up Chelsea to win away at odds of 1.80, when they really should be 1.50.) Spotting an error like that doesn’t mean you are more likely to win, but it does ensure that if you do win, you’ll win more money than you should have. This is the all-important area where the pro tipsters make their long-term profits.
Let’s be clear, the bookmakers get their prices right most of the time, but there are plenty of opportunities to spot where they have taken their eye off the ball. Here are just three reasons why…
Going against the crowd
If a big weight of money comes in on a player, team or horse, the bookmaker is obliged to shorten the odds and control their liabilities. In order to balance their books and maintain interest in the event, the bookies might then push up the odds on the opposing player or team. The skill involved is knowing when the crowd is wrong and when to go against the flow to snap up the juicy value on offer.
Bookmakers aren’t always as quick as they should be. Often they can be slow to react to injury news, giving a professional tipster the opportunity to respond first. For example, a pro tipster might get an early paddock report from a certain trainer and re-calculate their prediction before the bookies catch wind of a horse’s real potential.
Niche markets & expertise
In their quest to take more money and increase their betting turnover, bookmakers have expanded into sports and leagues that they cannot hope to cover fully. Every day there are often over 100 horses racing in the UK and thousands of matches taking place across Europe. Overworked and underpaid odds compilers are not always going to be able to price everything with 100% effectiveness. It seems that bookmakers’ odds compilers may be required to select the odds on football leagues that they are somewhat unfamiliar with. If you use a sports betting tipster who specialises in those leagues, they may be able to price up games better than the bookmaker.